Putting Down the Vase (Part 2 - Electoral Strategy)
This is the second in a series of four articles, collectively titled ‘Putting Down the Vase’. It is about populism, trust, and how Labour can stop Reform. The central argument is that, in a climate of low trust, risk-aversion at the centre must be overcome. The series includes 30 suggestions, in total, for how you do this. The full paper can be downloaded by clicking here:
The first in the series introduced the concept of the vase and looked at what it means in relation to communications, making nine initial suggestions. This second installment looks at what ‘putting down the vase’ means in relation to electoral strategy, making a further five suggestions.
ELECTORAL STRATEGY
Since the 1970s there has been a steady shift away from tribal party allegiances. The factors underpinning this are well-known – de-industrialisation, globalisation, rising higher education, individualism, etc. The eventual denouement is likely to be an electorate completely untethered from habitual voting patterns.
When this process was at its early-to-mid-stage, a couple of decades ago, parties were able to rely on their traditional base whilst courting the growing slice who were swing voters. This was a sensible tactic, but it was never a long-term answer if the de-coupling continued, as it has done. Once every voter is a swing voter then no one is.
This has been brought into greater focus by the plight of the Tories. In one of the best analyses after the 2024 election, Maria Sobolewska described how the lack of a competitive second party – i.e. the forgone conclusion of a Labour victory – had liberated many to vote on identity issues.
The failure of the Conservatives to recover since then means that this dynamic looks like part of a longer trend. A two-party system is giving way to a one-party system – which, in reality, quickly becomes a multi-party free-for-all. If you do not have a clear USP within this – if you are no one’s first choice – you will really struggle.
(NB: The view that two-party politics can carry on, with antipathy towards Reform subbing in for hatred of the Tories, does not really stand up in my view. They are a challenger party – created in 2020 and holding five seats – and are thus very different to the Conservatives).
The ming vase approach, in this domain, assumes that old loyalties will hold. Some parties, it supposes, are too big to fail. Countless ‘shocks’ – for the Lib Dems in the West Country in 2015, for Labour in the Red Wall in 2019 and for the Tories in the Home Counties in 2024 – have proven how weak these loyalties in fact are.
There will, of course, be a necessary focus on undecided voters within any electoral strategy. But mainstream parties must present a much better positive case for what they stand for, rather than assuming they can rely on the electoral dynamics which have traditionally favoured them.
Below are the five suggestions in this area.
10. Be willing to challenge public opinion. Polling and focus groups can answer many important questions: what the public really think of you, how an idea should be framed, and which policies shouldn’t be touched with a bargepole. But the public are also restless, contradictory and quick to pour scorn; no focus group right now will enthusiastically green-light a policy idea. To achieve something meaningful by 2029, Labour should articulate a clear path of change, and be ready to argue for it.
11. Take no voter for granted. The Runcorn by-election saw the bottom fall out of Labour’s vote in one of its safest seats. In this context the aim should be simple: to persuade everyone who voted Labour in 2024 to do so again. Ambitions shouldn’t extend to anyone who didn’t vote Labour (the possible exception, given low turnout, being first-time-non-voters). And Labour should neither prioritise Reform temptees within this, nor imagine it will be possible to ‘squeeze’ anyone to its left based on the Labour brand. Instead, the approach should involve a laser focus on what those in the 2024 coalition share – regardless of prior voting history. Whether they’re currently weighing up defection to the Greens, Reform or staying at home, we should be trying to identify the ‘middle of the Venn’ policies which will encourage them to vote Labour with some enthusiasm.
12. Understand young non-graduates. There’s a clear and present risk that established parties become obsolete. To build a long-term base, Labour should begin work now to understand and track opinion amongst 18-40 non-graduates of all political persuasions and none. This group has been missing in the culture war and Brexit debates of recent years – which took place between young degree-holders and older non-graduates. Young non-graduates are often casually liberal, asset-poor, low-paid, aspirational and politically unenthused. They have more skin in the game than most. If Labour is to have a long-term future it must start to act on the concerns of this group, and get them voting again.
13. Start thinking about how to switch to an Alternative Vote (AV) voting system. FPTP is failing. It could, in 2029, elect a Reform government which is actively opposed by most voters. The best alternative would be AV, whereby voters can express second and third preferences. This would incentivise all politicians to broaden their appeal, and would put a brake on divisive or puritanical parties. This is the most contentious of my suggestions so far, both for the valid reason that the public rejected AV in 2011, and for the less valid reason that Labour traditionally benefits from FPTP. But it would be a bold, surprising move, allowing the centre to hold.
14. Behave as if this will be a one-term administration. Labour ran in 2024 on the promise of a ‘decade of national renewal’. This assumed the norms of the past applied: a 174 majority guaranteed a second term. It’s now clear that this isn’t true. The government should therefore be much more gung-ho, focusing everything on creating a progressive social record to run on at the next election. If the party is to be voted out then what do we want the lasting achievements to be? The biggest error of all, right now, would be to waste 2024’s massive majority, by pursuing a ming vase strategy in preparation for 2029.
The next installment looks in more detail at what this last point means in practice. It can be read here. It includes ideas which would help to fix the country in a long-term sense, and which I believe would be popular across Labour’s 2024 support base – creating a situation where, by 2029, the government is making the weather.