Putting Down the Vase (Part 3 - General Policy)
This is the third in a series of four articles, collectively titled ‘Putting Down the Vase’. It is about populism, trust, and how Labour can stop Reform. The central argument is that, in a climate of low trust, risk-aversion at the centre must be overcome. The series includes 30 suggestions, in total, for how you do this. The full paper can be downloaded by clicking here:
The first in the series introduced the concept of the vase and looked at what ‘putting down the vase’ means in relation to communications, making nine initial suggestions. The second installment looked at what it means in relation to electoral strategy, making a further five suggestions.
This third installment looks at what putting down the vase means in relation to policy in general (setting aside migration policy, which is covered in the final installment). There are ten suggestions in total.
GENERAL POLICY
The logic of the ming vase electoral strategy is that you focus on swing voters. These voters then opt for whichever party will simultaneously put the most money into their pockets and into the services they rely on.
This leads to a policy approach based on: a) keeping tax low, whilst b) funding the NHS, the education system, defence and the police. Elections are fought based on abstract numbers, which parties use to demonstrate that their offer is better: £X00 a year more for your family, £Ym more for the NHS, Z,000 extra police officers, etc.
There is nothing especially wrong with this; it prioritises things everybody cares about, using money raised through growth. But it is a safety zone for a centre left party – a ming vase. It does not engage with the real texture of people’s lives. And it is very difficult for voters to engage with, as it’s based on outcomes delivered rather than choices made.
It thus contains no proper argument, and instead assumes credit will be given for material improvements to people’s lives. In reality, these improvements tend to be small and incremental, and are often put down by voters to coincidence or luck. As the 2024 US paper ‘The Death of Delivery’ explained, credit is rarely as forthcoming as those in politics expect.
This is especially true right now, not just because there is low economic growth in the UK, but because the approach described above delivers very little on the most important issue of the day, the cost-of-living.
Below are ten further suggestions for how Labour can overcome this. They are not at the expense of ‘valence’ policies, like cutting waiting lists. It’s taken as read that these remain vital. But the suggestions are about being less transactional, and injecting a clearer sense of choice and agency for the government.
15. Don’t obsess over the manifesto. Labour currently treats its 2024 pledges with reverence, hoping that fidelity here is the route to trust. Voters, however, have mostly forgotten the details – if they ever knew them – and evaluate based on whether a policy feels like something they expected. Hence, there’s little credit given to Labour for sticking to its fiscal rules, yet the Winter Fuel policy is seen as a blatant broken promise. In the end, Labour won’t be judged against its 2024 manifesto, but against what voters were hoping for at the time.
16. Say what happens after the ‘black hole’. Filling the gap in public finances may be necessary, to get cheaper borrowing and spend less on servicing debt. But it cannot be an end in itself. The idea that tax rises or welfare cuts are happening to satisfy an accounting shortfall is as uninspiring as it gets. If there really is no alternative, then a clear narrative is needed: when will the black hole be closed? Will there start to be more money for other things at this point? What will these things be?
17. Tax more rather than less to fill the hole. Then hypothecate as much as possible of what’s left over back to people. Voters have lost faith that what goes into the system comes back. The ‘black hole’ framing inadvertently adds to this, with every effort to find revenue seeming like a gratuitous confiscation. The temptation for The Exchequer may be to shrink from this, opting for small stealth taxes to get it across the line. But in the current context this will likely create pockets of uproar, as happened with the Winter Fuel Allowance, for minimal revenue. The Exchequer should instead focus on large wealth taxes – on land, property, the top layer of inheritance, capital gains etc – which raise significant money beyond that needed for the black hole. There will be media blowback. But each stream should be ring-fenced and funnelled – either towards the black hole itself or towards a specific extra service – so the question becomes not the justification for the levy in question, but what the country is getting to show for it.
18. Focus on new, universal institutions which are recognisably Labour. By 2029 there needs to be a list of 5-10 achievements which: a) no other party would have been expected to do, b) are ‘new’ in a clear before-and-after sense (i.e. not just additional funding for the NHS or minimum wage increases), and c) really touch people’s lives, so swathes of the population have either used them or know someone who has. Labour has policies that partially fit this bill: the Employment Rights Act, GB Energy, Best Start Hubs, Young Futures Hubs, Breakfast Clubs, etc. The party must start talking about these things. But it could implement other, more ambitious policies too – such as free, wraparound services in the fields of mental health, childcare or adult social care. These are very expensive but are desperately needed. They would change the whole conversation.
19. Level up. Tackling regional equality should be central. Yet much of Labour’s focus, in its dash for growth, has been on policies in the south that deliver quick wins, like the Heathrow expansion. Regional policy has tended to focus on devolution measures, meanwhile, which are obscure to voters. In my view there must be flagship industrial strategies for each of the following four types of town: former mill towns; former coal and steel towns; ports and seaside towns; and early wave New Towns. Each of these place types has distinct challenges. Each could, for example, be assigned an industry of the future, like software design or green power, which is concentrated there.
20. Continue to be progressive on clean energy. Polling this year found that ‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are differentiated from the 2024 Reform vote, in that they support practical policies on the environment and energy. With the obvious exception of car-related policies (e.g. ULEZ), Labour should not be afraid of the populist right on these issues. It should stick with new initiatives on clean power, and trust that this is not going to become the next culture war divide.
21. Be the party of the consumer. Historically, the left speaks for the worker and the right for business. Right now, however, voters are mainly suffering in their capacity as consumers. The cost-of-living crisis isn’t in the government’s gift to fully solve. But it should promote a suite of simple regulations to stop customers being fleeced. For instance, ‘shrinkflation’ could be tackled via a ruling that any business which reduces product size without a price drop must put temporary signage on the packet. Ideas like this are sometimes dismissed as ‘anti-business’ or as gimmicks. But I think that a high-profile package of measures like this could be crucial, in siding with consumers at a time when they feel under immense pressure.
22. Develop a vision for the future of high streets. The death of the high street is a cause of deep sadness for voters. It reflects a society which feels atomised and lost. Labour has enacted good politics, like the Pride in Place initiative. But the party should start to promote a broader high streets vision too, based on a new, post-retail function. This could build on ideas like those in the 2011 Grimsey Review, which proposed a reinvention of town centres as community spaces. It would mean leading a serious national conversation, about how we restore communal life in the age of Amazon and working from home.
23. Provide reassurance on AI. To the average person, AI looks more like a threat than an opportunity. Roles in customer service, IT, and countless other tertiary jobs are at risk. I don’t doubt that there are big opportunities too. But this is not an area which Labour should approach with any hint of utopian zeal. For now, AI should be treated as something akin to the shifts which led to 1980s de-industrialisation: a technological change to be understood, managed and mitigated.
24. Follow a middle path with Trump. Those who say we should boycott the US President are wrong. But so are those who say we should publicly flatter him in the hope of better tariffs. The UK’s influence is important on foreign policy. But the general approach between now and 2028 ought to be to treat Trump like a very abrasive colleague who you’re not in a position to fire. Apply professional courtesy, in other words; neither cold shoulder nor red carpet. By the time of the next UK election, Trump will hopefully be gone, and can be criticised more readily. But this relies on getting the balance right in the mean time.
On some of the points above, the government has much better policies than is generally known. I’ve tried to acknowledge this. But part of the problem is that these positive policies remain very low profile.
Changing this requires a stronger narrative, which puts them front-and-centre. But it also involves tackling the issue of immigration, which currently drains all oxygen. The fourth and final installment looks at how Labour can do this. It can be read here.